Race
Iowa is 95% white (Caucasoid
and Caucusoid), but a black guy is polling first on the Democratic side. A black
guy's running on the Republican side, too, but few have noticed. (How many know he placed third there in 2000?) Meanwhile, in the rest of the country, black voters are supporting Hillary Clinton more than they are Barack Obama.
Strategy
Using game theory in the Iowa caucuses, with the help of second-tier candidates, John Edwards and Barack Obama could eliminate Hillary Clinton from the race.
Uncommitted
"Uncommitted" beat Bill Clinton in 1992, the year he won the presidency. "Uncommitted" beat Jimmy Carter in 1976, the year he won the presidency. "Uncommitted" beat George McGovern in 1972, the year he won the nomination for his party. Why is no one discussing "uncommitted" this year (especially with so many undecideds)?
Reagan Effect
Ronald Reagan was a ballot-box politician: he'd poll much lower than the actual votes he'd get. What if that works for Fred Thompson, the only real Conservative in the race, and against Mitt Romney--will Iowa farmers really buy his super-slickness?
Ron Paul
In a state where Steve Forbes and Alan Keyes can place second and third (in 2000), who can really count out Ron Paul with his fervent and energetic band of supporters.
Spouses
Spouses may end up being the determining factor on the Democratic side.
Grassroots Democracy
Whatever might be said about the anachronisms of the Iowa caucus system, it sure looks like grassroots democracy in action.
2 comments:
You had me until I read, "the only real conservative in the race, Fred Thompson" -- I almost fell off my chair!
How soon we forget here in America. Do you remember that Fred was instrumental in passing the notorious anti-freespeech McCain-Feingold? Do you remember that he was a paid pro-abortion lobbyist? If a State wants gay marriage, that's okay with Fred. If a State wants legalized abortion, that's okay with Fred. In 1994, Fred said "Abortion should be legal in all circumstances within the first trimester."
Fred is committed to bipartisanship with Democrats (translate, "compromise").
The only real conservative running for president is Alan Keyes.
If we compromise on conservatism, we will once again have compromised leadership.
Go to www.alankeyes.com and see if Alan Keyes doesn't indeed stand courageously for EVERYTHING that you believe.
I believe your friend Mr. Keyes refers to himself as the only "pure conservative". I would argue that he's really "in the race", though, as he's mainly a "message candidate" not seriously mounting any serious charge for the office of the presidency. I have yet to hear Mr. Thompson's side of his pro-abortion lobbying, but I recommend a review of Reagan's (and even Prescott Bush's) history on the subject.
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