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The Three Most Likely Scenarios for a Romney 2012 Victory
In order to win the presidency, Mitt Romney must collect a total of 270 electoral votes. The United States does elect presidents on a straight popular vote count, but by awarding a number of votes for every state won. The greater the population a state, the more electoral votes that state is worth. There are natural states that both Romney and Obama will win without much effort. For a detailed look at the probably scenarios, we will start at Romney's likely electoral college floor.
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Virginia is one of the most important states for Romney in 2012. Recent polls show Obama "clearly" ahead with leads of 3, 4, 8, and 5 points. Yet, an actual... Read more
| Analyzing Ohio for 2012
Three September, 2012 polls have Mitt Romney losing to Obama by 7, 1, and 7 points. Nearly all of the polls show a greater Democratic turnout advantage than in 2008, the largest outlier in recent electoral history? It's not that the data they use is necessarily wrong, but there seems to be little analysis to go along with the findings. The internal data actual show a possible tie in two of the races, and a sizable lead for Romney in the third.
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