“No matter what pollsters are reporting, newspapers are writing, and your friends might be telling you — we're facing two hard truths,” said Virginia gubernatorial candidate, Democrat Terry McAuliffe
in an e-mail to supporters:
- in off-year elections conservative voters turn out more reliably than Democrats, and
- for 45 years, the political party that controls the White House has lost the Virginia governor race the next year.
Then he threw in a third hard truth: in 2009 "fewer than 40 percent of Virginia voters cast a ballot for governor, despite the fact that nearly 70 percent voted in the presidential election the year before."
He's actually got another problem to deal with: Libertarians. Robert Sarvis is the third-party candidate in the race, the official Libertarian on the ballot.* Support for third-party candidates in what is essentially a two-party system tend to poll higher than their ultimate vote count. The reason for this is simple: third-party voters tend to face reality when they get into the polling booth, realizing a vote for their guy helps bring in someone far less attractive.
And Republican
Cuccinelli has real Libertarian credentials, according to the Washington Examiner. He:
- has angered the state’s business lobby by running against corporate welfare
- often chooses government restraint over “law and order”
- was the only Republican to vote 'no' on expanding the death penalty in 2009
- criticized the drug war as overzealous
- says jailing pot dealers is a waste of taxpayer money
Rand Paul and Ron Paul have both endorsed Cuccinelli, as has the Republican Liberty Caucus of Virginia — the libertarian wing of Virginia’s GOP.
It wouldn't take too much of the 10% now polling for Libertarian Sarvis to switch to Cuccinelli to make this his night.** And the worse Obamacare looks to Virginians, the better things go for the Republican—he's known for suing the Feds over the Affordable Care Act.***
*Charles C. W. Cooke of the National Review Online
doesn't think Sarvis is much of a Libertarian at all (perhaps raising questions as to why he's in the race to begin with).
**a
Quinnipiac poll shows Sarvis shows 4% of Democrats are for Sarvis compared to 7% among Republicans (16% for Independents).
***hard truth #5, by my count.
