More Than Just 'Two Hard Truths'

“No matter what pollsters are reporting, newspapers are writing, and your friends might be telling you — we're facing two hard truths,” said Virginia gubernatorial candidate, Democrat Terry McAuliffe in an e-mail to supporters:

1. in off-year elections conservative voters turn out more reliably than Democrats, and
2. for 45 years, the political party that controls the White House has lost the Virginia governor race the next year.

Then he threw in a third hard truth: in 2009 "fewer than 40 percent of Virginia voters cast a ballot for governor, despite the fact that nearly 70 percent voted in the presidential election the year before."

He's actually got another problem to deal with: Libertarians. Robert Sarvis is the third-party candidate in the race, the official Libertarian on the ballot.* Support for third-party candidates in what is essentially a two-party system tend to poll higher than their ultimate vote count. The reason for this is simple: third-party voters tend to face reality when they get into the polling booth, realizing a vote for their guy helps bring in someone far less attractive.

And Republican Cuccinelli has real Libertarian credentials, according to the Washington Examiner. He:

• has angered the state’s business lobby by running against corporate welfare
• often chooses government restraint over “law and order”
• was the only Republican to vote 'no' on expanding the death penalty in 2009
• criticized the drug war as overzealous
• says jailing pot dealers is a waste of taxpayer money

Rand Paul and Ron Paul have both endorsed Cuccinelli, as has the Republican Liberty Caucus of Virginia — the libertarian wing of Virginia’s GOP.

It wouldn't take too much of the 10% now polling for Libertarian Sarvis to switch to Cuccinelli to make this his night.** And the worse Obamacare looks to Virginians, the better things go for the Republican—he's known for suing the Feds over the Affordable Care Act.***

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*Charles C. W. Cooke of the National Review Online doesn't think Sarvis is much of a Libertarian at all (perhaps raising questions as to why he's in the race to begin with).
**a Quinnipiac poll shows Sarvis shows 4% of Democrats are for Sarvis compared to 7% among Republicans (16% for Independents).
***hard truth #5, by my count.